Let the gloating begin

So Apple recently announced their quarterly results and the iPhone is an unprecedented success, firmly entrenched as a viable portable computing device. John Gruber at Daring Fireball and various other Mac-oriented websites are roasting the "analysts" and "experts" who got it so wrong.

Here are some quick thoughts:

1. The App Store. This is the real killer app. Building on Apple's vast experience in online music delivery, installing software couldn't be simpler. Until a competitor understands this and offers a much better alternative, Apple will own this market. It's only a matter of time.

2. Android will not gain mainstream market acceptance. Android is great for tinkerers or people who demand total control of the phone. But since each handset maker can implement their own interface and applications, there is no coherent vision to tie everything together. This makes it hard to market the product well, and also leads to many technical and support issues. The only way for these licensors to differentiate themselves would be based on price, and we know where that leads to.

3. Every engineer should have this Einstein quote on their minds: "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." Adding features should not introduce undue complexity, especially when proposed feature is not essential, used infrequently and/or yields insignificant value.

4. Blindly copying features without understanding the context will lead to grief. HP introduced the TouchSmart PC to great fanfare, it is not the first attempt at a touch-screen PC and still has nothing to show for it. Why? HP does not offer any compelling application that demands the use of a touchscreen. Also, it is terrible from a usability and productivity standpoint; I've got to get my hands off the keyboard and mess with the screen just to do something which can already be accomplished with a mouse and keyboard. Put another way, HP chickened out and did not have the courage to completely remove the keyboard and mouse. Not that I blame them, having your hands over a display for prolonged periods of time would be tiring. A multitouch interface on a small portable device on the other hand makes perfect sense because you are constrained by size, weight and ergonomics decisions